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Operating knowledge

Experiments

Scale, stop or change

A test has finished and the temptation is to interpret it generously.

Signals to look for

  • results
  • did it work
  • scale
  • double down
  • keep going
  • kill it

Questions to answer

  • What was the success rule written before the test?
  • Was it met, on the measure specified?
  • What else changed during the window?
  • What does scaling cost, and can it be funded?

Evidence required before committing

  • the pre-agreed success and stop rules
  • the measured result
  • cost of the next step

Likely constraint

  • Rules rewritten after the fact
  • No cash for the scaled version

How the decision branches

  • If
    The success rule was met cleanly
    Then
    Scale one step, not ten, and re-measure at the same rule.
  • If
    The stop rule was met
    Then
    Stop. Reinterpreting the rule afterwards destroys the value of ever setting one.
  • If
    The result is between the two
    Then
    Change one variable and re-run once. No more than once.

What to test

Compare the recorded result against the recorded rule, in writing, before any argument about what it means.

Read after 7 days.

What success looks like

  • The decision follows the pre-agreed rule
  • The decision is recorded with its evidence

What means stop

  • No rule was set — the test cannot be interpreted; set rules and re-run

Typical next move

  • ScalingSet the next rule before spending.
  • StoppingFile what was learned so it is not re-tested blindly.

Who does the work

Aury can carry out: read company, prepare document, file memory. Specialists involved: strategy, finance.

Your approval: Scaling spend or commitment is founder-approved.

Where this stops being true

Requires that rules were set beforehand.

One window can be dominated by seasonality or a single large deal. Note what else was happening.

Provenance

  • Aurygine synthesis: Aurygine synthesis across founder journeys

Confidence: high. Last reviewed 2026-08-25. Your company's own recorded results override this playbook whenever the two disagree.